Amherst, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

841
FXUS61 KBUF 290713
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
313 AM EDT Thu May 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the region will slide to our northeast today.
Behind the low, at least some unsettled weather will persist through
the weekend with the chance of some showers each day, along with a
continued trend for cooler temperatures, with the coolest readings
over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Band of showers covered most of the area east of the Genesee Valley
early this morning. This area of rain will continue lift northeast
through this morning.

An occluded front will pass through the area today as weak low
pressure moves northeast through the region. Drier air will move
into western New York with breaks in the clouds developing east
and northeast of Lake Erie. Southwest winds will increase with
gusts up to 25 mph across the Niagara Frontier. Daytime heating
and cooler air aloft will steepen lapse rates by this afternoon
with residual moisture resulting in diurnally- driven showers.
Most of the activity will be along and inland of lake breeze
circulations, across the western Southern Tier into the Finger
Lakes, and where lake breeze convergence forms across the
Niagara Peninsula. Showers will move east and diminish across
the forecast area tonight with the loss of daytime heating and
lack of any real forcing mechanisms.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Friday our region will lie in between a vigorous shortwave trough
crossing the Ohio Valley...and a more pronounced upper-level trough
and embedded shortwave energy dropping south-southeastward across
Ontario/Quebec and the Upper Great Lakes. With only limited moisture
and very weak large-scale forcing for ascent consequently in place
across our area...any shower potential will largely be based on weak
diurnally-driven instability and mesoscale lift from lake breeze
boundaries. While the latter could help to pop a few isolated
showers across interior portions of the Southern Tier/Finger Lakes
and Niagara county Friday afternoon...the vast majority of the day
should be dry. Otherwise...we can expect slightly below average high
temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Friday night and Saturday the aforementioned Ohio Valley and
Canadian shortwave energy will phase together and act to carve out a
deep longwave trough over the eastern third of North America.
Attendant DCVA and height falls along its eastern flank will trigger
secondary surface cyclogenesis over the mid-Atlantic states late
Friday and Friday night...with the resulting surface low then
deepening and lifting northward across New England during Saturday.
As this occurs...an incipient cold front/surface trough dropping
southward from southern Ontario/Quebec late Friday will also
gradually get absorbed into the circulation of the developing
coastal low. Increasing large-scale forcing and moisture attendant
to all of this will result in a general increase in shower chances
across our region Friday night into the first part of Saturday...
followed by a west-east diminishing trend Saturday afternoon and
night as the coastal low lifts out across New England...and drier
air filters across our region in its wake.

By the time we get to Sunday the vertically-stacked surface low will
be making its way northward across Quebec...though deep upper-level
troughing and its attendant pool of cool air aloft will remain
firmly in place across our region...with another embedded shortwave
pivoting southeastward across the area during the day. Coupled with
diurnal instability...this may lead to the development of some more
widely scattered to scattered showers...with the best potential for
these found across the eastern Finger Lakes and North Country. Any
such showers should then fade quickly with the loss of heating
Sunday evening...leaving behind largely dry and quiet weather for
the balance of the night as surface-based ridging and drier air
begins nosing into our region from the Ohio Valley.

As for temperatures Friday night through Sunday night...these will
average out well below normal owing to the deep pool of cool air
accompanying the upper level trough.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
In the long term portion of the forecast the large-scale pattern
across North America will flip...with digging broad troughing across
the western half of the continent driving the development of
downstream ridging across the east...especially as we move through
Tuesday and Wednesday. This will result in mainly dry weather along
with a marked day-to-day warming trend...with highs in the mid 60s
to lower 70s Monday climbing to the upper 70s to mid 80s by midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Band of showers will continue to drift northeast through this
morning. Observations showing mainly MVFR/IFR across western New
York with VFR across central New York. Low stratus across western
New York will fill in across central New York through early this
morning, as low pressure lifts through the region.

Steadier showers will lift northeast out of the North Country this
morning, with mainly dry weather across western New York through the
first half of the day. Showers will re-develop this afternoon,
mainly along and inland of lake breeze circulations. Conditions
improve through the day today as daytime mixing helps raise
ceilings, with VFR conditions expected to return by afternoon.

Outlook...

Tonight through Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a few showers at times.

Monday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Low pressure will move north of Lake Ontario today with winds
turning southwesterly and increasing some following an attendant
frontal passage. Winds will remain elevated through the end of the
work week, bringing some light to moderate chop on both Lakes
through Friday, however winds and waves are expected to remain
below Small Craft Advisory levels.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSK/JM/JJR/TMA
NEAR TERM...HSK/JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...JJR
LONG TERM...JJR
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA